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62%by Dec 2026
high

AI reasoning model scores in top 1% on bar exam without special training

Reasoning models are approaching expert-level performance on professional exams. A top-1% bar exam score from a general-purpose model would mark a significant capability threshold.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

True if a publicly available AI model achieves a score in the top 1% of human test-takers on the Uniform Bar Exam, as reported by the developer or independent evaluation. Must be a general-purpose system not fine-tuned exclusively for legal tasks.

▲ FOR

GPT-4 scored 90th percentile in 2023

Reasoning models show step-change improvements on structured exams

Two years of capability advancement since GPT-4 bar performance

▼ AGAINST

Top 1% requires near-perfect performance

Bar exam includes subjective essay components

Benchmark gaming concerns — models may train on exam-adjacent data

RECENT SIGNALS (3)
Open Source AI Models Achieve Frontier Performance in April 2026 Releases
Fazm Blog
UK AI Security Institute Report Shows Frontier Models Surpassing Expert Baselines in Multiple Domains
UK AI Security Institute
Anthropic Launches Claude Mythos Preview with Record Benchmark Performance
LLM Stats