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61% 7 ptsby Q1 2027
moderate

Open-source model matches closed frontier performance

The gap between open and closed models has been narrowing.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

True if an open-weights model scores within 2% of the leading closed model on MMLU, HumanEval, and GPQA.

▲ FOR

Meta investing heavily in open-source

Training techniques closing gap

Compute costs dropping

▼ AGAINST

Frontier labs have data advantages

Post-training techniques closely held

Benchmark parity ≠ real-world parity

RECENT SIGNALS (1)
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